MFW Musings – March 23, 2023

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Noteworthy news bullets we thought you’d enjoy

• Manufacturing activity inches up in February, getting closer to growth, reports ISM (source: Logistics Management)
  • The PMI for February reported a reading of 47.7 (50 or higher represents growth), which was a 0.3% increase from January.
  • The New Orders Index remained in contraction territory at 47%, which was 4.5 points higher than the 42.5 recorded in January.

   

• Global Supply Chains Back to Normal After Rocky Three Years, NY Fed Says (source: Bloomberg)
  • The February reading in the NY Fed’s Global Supply Chain Pressure Index was -0.26, reaching negative territory for the first time since August 2019.
  • The gauge brings together 27 variables that take the temperature of everything from cross-border transportation costs to country-level manufacturing data in the Euro area, China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the UK, and the US.

   

• Class 8 Orders Rebound in February (source: Transport Topics)
  • North American Class 8 orders in February hit 23,600 units, ending a month-to-month decline that started in October, ACT Research reported.
  • Orders rose 12% year over year, and 28% month over month.

   

• Mexico starts 2023 as top US trade partner (source: Freight Waves)
  • Mexico ranked as the United States’ top trading partner for the second consecutive month in January, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.
  • Mexico’s total trade with the U.S. increased 12% year over year to $64 billion in January, compared to January of 2022.

   

• Decline in truck transportation jobs 3^rd biggest in last decade (source: Freight Waves)
  • The job losses suffered by the truck transportation sector in February have almost no precedent in the last 10 years, except for the massive drop in April 2020 and a similar drop in March 2013.
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics data reported a decline of 8,500 jobs in February. Before February’s report there had only been three months since the pandemic began in which truck transportation jobs declined.

   

• US truckload rates drop sharply in February, but not LTL pricing (source: The Journal of Commerce)
  • The LTL PPI (Producer Price Index) was down 7.7% las month from its peak last June, after climbing 40% from September 2020. The tenacity of LTL rates has surprised some shippers as volumes are clearly falling and capacity has loosened up dramatically.

   

• Commerce, NRF data shows mixed sequential readings and annual gains, for February retail sales (source: Logistics Management)
  • Commerce reported that February retail sales – at $697.9 billion – were off 0.4% compared to January and up 5.4% annually.
  • The National Retail Federation (NRF) reported its calculation of retail sales (which excludes automotive dealers, gasoline stations, and restaurants), pointed to a 0.5% increase over January and up 6.5% annually.

   

• Diesel sheds $0.062 to $4.185 per gallon (source: Transport Topics)
  • Diesel’s price has shed $0.437 since it cost $4.622/gallon on January 30^th.

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